STATE OF THE INDUSTRY (short version)

What did Trump say?

• Trump announced in a social media post that he wanted to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign-produced movies entering the US. He claimed Hollywood is being “destroyed” by foreign competition and government incentives abroad.
  
  

What did Trump mean?

• Hollywood production is said to have declined 40% over the last decade.
  
  

• Many big films that traditionally would have been shot in Hollywood are now filmed overseas, including the UK. This is largely driven by film tax incentives abroad (including in the UK) competing with US state-level tax breaks.
  
  

Reactions and impact of Trump's comments

• California Governor Newsom called for a federal tax incentive and improved state level incentives, backed by unions and Hollywood figures. However, Trump is unlikely to support tax incentives for Hollywood due to political conflicts between him and California.
  
  

• Studios’ shares dipped after the announcement; industry professionals criticized the tariff idea, saying the film industry is highly global and complex, so defining a ‘US film’ for tariffs would be legally difficult.
  
  

• Films are often classified as services, complicating tariffs legally further.
  
  

• Tariffs could increase ticket prices, unpopular with audiences.
  
  

• Meanwhile the US film industry is still profitable globally; Trump’s claims are seen as exaggerated.
  
  

• Overall, however, his comments created further uncertainty in an industry recovering from the rollercoaster ride of the last five years. This prompted fears that film investors would exercise caution until tariff situation clarifies.
  
  

• Despite this, all reports were that the Cannes Film Festival saw business as usual, with the industry appearing to unite against the tariffs idea.
  
  

• No confirmed UK productions have been put on hold due to the tariffs threat as yet.
  
  

Impact on UK crew and UK industry

• Understandably, UK crew have been worried, but in reality the tariffs are unlikely to happen and US federal incentives are unlikely too.
  
  

• Meanwhile the UK remains a key global production hub with strong cross-party UK Government financial support to encourage big budget and smaller budget productions.
  
  

• The big UK studios have long-term deals with the major US studios and streamers (Netflix, Disney, Warner Bros, Amazon, ect), which tie them into making productions in the UK for at least the foreseeable future.
  
  

• UK studio expansions are ongoing and UK production is spreading beyond the London area.
  
  

• Compared to the US, the UK offers diverse, iconic locations and cheaper, skilled crew.
  
  

How is the industry doing right now?

• In scripted drama, crew unemployment has definitely improved from a reported 68% not working (winter 2023/24, Bectu survey); summer 2025 sees many major productions in UK studios employing numerous crew, including several long-running jobs. As ever, employment levels are almost certainly better in Band 3 and 4,  where crews are bigger and there are more opportunities. There are still people struggling in the lower budgets.
  
  

• The number of crew not working overall, including scripted and unscripted, is sadly likely to be higher than last year, due to the recent redundancies in unscripted daytime TV (largely caused by a decline in TV advertising revenue).
  
  

• Despite positive production numbers in scripted drama, budget cuts since the US strikes has resulted in fewer crew being hired on some productions and prep times shortened.
  
  

• Competition is high for the junior roles still and it remains hard for newcomers to break in.
  
  

Overall outlook

• Industry has changed from pre-Covid boom; more downtime between jobs is probably going to become the norm.
  
  

• The UK film and HETV industry remains healthy and growing, attracting major productions; domestic TV drama remains strong, despite cuts in unscripted daytime TV.
  
  

• Trump’s tariffs unlikely to materialize; the UK industry is resilient and optimistic about its future.
  
  

• Junior crew need continued resilience and in any downtime they need to be proactive in closing skills gaps, networking and diligently chasing down potential work opportunities.

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STATE OF THE INDUSTRY (LONG VERSION)

What did Trump say

Donald Trump posted on social media in May that he would impose a 100% tariff “on any and all Movies coming into our Country that are produced in Foreign Lands”. He said in subsequent media interviews that “Hollywood is being destroyed”, that “other countries are stealing our movies and movie-making capabilities” and that “Governments are supporting them”.

What was he referring to?

Production in Hollywood is said to have fallen 40% over the last decade and was further hit after the Hollywood strikes two years ago effectively increased crew salaries.

The Hollywood fires of 2025 were a reminder that LA crew are already hard hit and the number of crew living and working in the LA area has vastly fallen since Hollywood’s Golden Age.

Countless big films that would have traditionally been shot in Hollywood are now shot elsewhere, including many in the UK.

In countries with nascent film industries, experienced US crew sometimes come in to oversee local teams, effectively training up competitor industries in Hollywood best practice. 

Trump was also referring to tax breaks offered by governments across the world, including the UK, as incentives to shoot in their country. In the US, tax breaks are offered at state level, not federal (Government) level.

What sparked Trump’s comments?

The day before he made his ‘tariff’ comments, Trump had been briefed on the state of the US film and HETV industry by Hollywood actor Jon Voigt (of Deliverance, Coming Home), who is one of Trump’s appointed ‘Hollywood ambassadors’. It later emerged that Voigt favours tax incentives over tariffs and it's not clear why Trump talked about tariffs in his May comments - other than what some observers have suggested, that Trump is purely obsessed with tariffs!

What was the immediate reaction to Trump’s comments?

Almost immediately, shares in all the big studios dipped and while there was a general lack of official response from the studios themselves, numerous industry professionals took to social media to criticise the tariff idea.

The Governor of California, Gavin Newsom, didn’t respond directly to the tariffs idea, but instead suggested that California needed better tax incentives to encourage productions back to Hollywood. His comments were backed by SAG-AFTRA and the Motion Picture Association, which represents Hollywood studios and unions, as well as Voight and the Sylvester Stallone, the second of Trump’s “special ambassadors” to Hollywood.

(Ironically, Trump's third Hollywood ambassador, Mel Gibson, has his new film - The Passion of Christ: the Resurrection - starting up in Rome's Cinecita this summer, exactly the opposite of what Trump is trying to encourage.)

Would Trump help out Hollywood by backing financial support for the state’s film industry? Trump has never won favour with the Hollywood elite and he’s known to think the place ‘woke’. He lost California in the last election. On top of that, he and Governor Gavin Newsom are not best pals. Newsom is a Democrat who’s been talked about as a potential presidential candidate in 2028. As we write, Trump is clashing with Newsom and with California in general over the LA immigration riots. All this would suggest that Trump is not about to do anything to support a federal or state tax incentive to help the Hollywood film industry in California.

On the other hand, Voigt compares Hollywood’s decline to Detroit’s with the car industry - and that’s the kind of narrative that Trump loves. A native US industry hit by foreign powers and bad management, which he steps in to fix.

It'll be an interesting story to follow, but our feeling is that both these threats will blow over with little discernible impact on the UK industry. 

What did critics say was wrong with Trump’s tariffs idea?

The film industry is so global - with a complex international network of subsidies, funding, distribution rights and more coming together to enable any one production - that for the Trump government to create criteria to decide what is or isn’t a ‘US film’ would be at best contentious and legally fraught. Commentators pointed to the 12 Marvel movies, which were shot at Pinewood Studios outside London, or Barbie, which was produced with a largely UK crew at Warner Bros’ Leavesden studios near London, benefitting from UK Government tax breaks. 

There are potential legal issues, including the widely reported claim that films in the US are classed as ‘services’ on which you can’t impose tariffs. Trump is already facing legal challenges to his other tariffs, so the film tariff idea would likely also end up in a lengthy and complex legal battle, which might well outlast his presidency.

Tariff costs might end up being passed onto cinema-goers. Your local cinema ticket costing double for any film that was shot outside the US? Not a great vote-winner!

The US runs a trade surplus of billions and made a reported $22.6bn in exports last year. In other words, US-backed productions are sold and viewed all over the world, bringing in vast profits for US companies. So things are far from terrible for the US film industry. The way the global film and HETV industry operates can hardly be seen as a threat to the US, as Trump suggested.

Finally, it’s worth remembering that other countries take measures to encourage domestic film-making, including the UK, which offers a points-based system marking a production on its ‘Britishness’, which may or may not then qualify for a higher tax break. https://www.ukscreenalliance.co.uk/subpages/uk-film-high-end-tv-tax-incentives/

But what the UK doesn’t do is punish domestic film-makers if they want or need to shoot abroad; equally, there is no levy on non-British films.

The longer-term impact of Trump’s comments

The sad truth is that like the other tariff threats he’s been making over international trade agreements, Trump’s comments create uncertainty, and uncertainty is not what investors like in any industry, particularly the film industry, which was already in recovery from the rollercoaster of the last five years and the flatline caused by the US strikes. What the global film industry badly needed this year was stability.

Have there been any UK-based productions put on hold because of the tariff threat? Not that we know of. IMDB reports that the putting on hiatus of a Major Motion Picture, starring Tom Cruise, which was starting up at one of studios near London, was linked to the tariffs threat. But our understanding was that the film was put on hold for script development.

Trump’s comments came on the eve of the Cannes Film Festival, where there was of course lots of gossip about what he’d said, but the trade hall was as busy as ever. Cannes’ Marché du Film, the biggest film market in the world with hundreds of millions of dollars paid for distribution rights each year, is generally an industry temperature check. And judging from this year’s Marché, the temperature is just fine. If anything, people have suggested Trump’s comments unified the global film industry against what he was proposing.

It must be asked, would a US production shooting outside the US now be a less attractive proposition for an investor? Yes, you might well expect caution from film investors, at least until the road ahead was clearer, but the initial reaction at Cannes was ‘business as usual’.

What does all this mean for UK crew?

Already, post-pandemic and post-strikes, many in the film industry were on a ‘survive to 2025’ trip, this year being seen as the light at the end of the tunnel, after long months of unemployment for so many crew. Trump’s comments caused additional worry for many crew.

The reality, however, is far from bleak.

The film tariff is almost certainly never going to happen. It’s an impractical and illogical idea for many reasons and even the big US studios wouldn’t back it. What’s more likely was a federal tax incentive being created, to lure productions back to the US. But as we’ve seen, the downturn is largely a Hollywood problem, not a US-wide problem, and Trump is no friend of California Governor Gavin Newson - and he’s no friend of Hollywood or California generally. So even a federal tax incentive is pretty unlikely. Overall, it looks like this may all blow over.

Meanwhile, the industry’s biggest players are all tied up so closely in the UK for years to come, that we’re very unlikely to see a radical shift away from the UK in the near future. 

Some productions have no choice but to shoot in the UK. The practical and financial reasons for basing a production here are numerous and the backing of the UK government for the film industry is not in doubt.

All the signs are that the outlook for UK crew in scripted drama is bright.

What else is affecting the film and TV industry right now?

Trump’s broader trade tariffs, if they’re eventually imposed, may well drive up production costs, as materials for sets shipped from countries like China are taxed.

The dollar has been rising in value over the last 18 months but some have said Trump wants to unsettle the currency market so the dollar becomes less strong, which would mean people buy more US goods. If it does fall, then buying US productions in dollars will be better value, but also shooting movies abroad will be more expensive for US studios. Big studios lock in the currency rate when a film is greenlit, but as the rate fluctuates in the final stages before production, it’s harder for investors to commit and it’s also harder for Indies, who don’t have the same bargaining power.

Ironically, the US courts now starting to challenge the Trump tariff plans may destabilise the markets for longer - and while investors wait to see what happens to the dollar, they may be disinclined to invest in a film. 

Away from the US, the UK has lost some funding for films post-Brexit. It was replaced in part but not entirely, so that makes it harder particularly for Indie productions to find funding. Brexit has also complicated collaborations with foreign co-producers, and also made some things more expensive. Additionally, public funding for UK film and television is under increasing strain. Organisations such as the BFI, BBC Film, and Film4 have seen their budgets reduced in real terms and ultimately that means it's harder for Indies to get made. 

On the other hand, the UK government’s recent announcement of an increase in tax incentives for smaller, UK productions up to 40% will change things in their favour.

Overall, the UK is lucky in that its government, whichever the ruling party, has been highly tuned into the value of the UK film industry. Despite Keir Starmer being under pressure to fund election-winning issues like defence, his support for the film industry doesn’t look like changing - Labour’s ‘big reset’ was held at Pinewood last year, a good sign - and a Parliamentary Committee is currently hearing from industry professionals about the realities of working in film and HETV. The creative industries have been identified as a key growth-driving sector in the Government’s Industrial Strategy, and will form a central part of the government’s mission to grow the economy. The Creative Industries Sector Plan is to be published this summer. Philippa Childs, deputy general secretary, Bectu Sector of Prospect, has been part of the taskforce.

https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/378/culture-media-and-sport-committee/news/196602/new-inquiry-cms-committee-to-examine-british-film-and-highend-tv/

Why will the UK industry remain strong?

Other places around the world have come and gone, but the UK has remained a production hub for films and TV productions of all sizes for many decades, and there are no signs of that changing.

Pinewood Studios and Sheppterton Studios are owned by an asset management company which has been changing its business model to focus less on “short-term contracts and more on long-term, inflation-protected agreements with the major studios”. That means both studios are keen to tie up deals with the US production companies and streamers that will see them shoot in the UK for years to come. So far we’ve seen Prime Video announce a “landmark multimillion-pound long-term contract” with Shepperton, comprising 9 sound stages, workshops and office accommodation. Meanwhile Netflix has taken almost 10 stages at Shepperton and Disney Corp has a 10 year lease at Pinewood. Warner Bros have their Leavesden base here (and they also have a big base in Australia, so they’re very heavily committed to production outside the US).
These are the companies that shape the industry and they have all made major, long-term commitments to making films and HETV in the UK.

Expansion in studio space is continuing. Shepperton is now one of the biggest in the world and in February this year Pinewood in Buckinghamshire had a public consultation on the expansion of that site to incorporate additional film stages and production facilities alongside the development of a data centre. At the time in Jan, CEO David Conway referred to a  “reduction in global content production…” He was referring to a decline in investment in Japan and India - meanwhile US content production has marginally increased this year, so for the markets that affect our crew, the UK and US, its good news.

Development of the UK’s north - productions can now base themselves in any area of the UK and be close to a world-class studio and world-class talent pool of crew. It’s no longer an M25-centric industry and that’s recognised by the big studios. Some of these 'regional' studios are not yet as busy as we'd like, but their very presence is a positive thing and creates more opportunities for foreign productions to use our world-class facilities, locations and crew.

The UK has always been geographically attractive for film-makers, with a vast range of locations, all within reach in a small island area. Parts of the UK have been used to depict all manner of foreign places. Famously, Glasgow often doubles for Gotham City, which most people would have expected to be shot in New York. And some productions positively need to shoot here. Warner Bros, currently doing the Harry Potter TV series, will struggle to find a castle to shoot in on location in the US! (Also worth noting that the Harry Potter TV series is booked in at Leavesden for the next decade or so, it’s anticipated). You'd hope that James Bond, despite now being Amazon-owned, will continue to use some UK locations. The UK’s range of locations in a small area is one big advantage over Hollywood and other global production hubs.

Cheaper crew costs - lots of people don’t like it but the truth is that hiring crew in the UK is less costly than in the US, mainly because of the power of the US unions, which bolster crew collective bargaining power. That situation has been exacerbated by the outcome of the US strikes, which effectively increased US crew wages. For UK-based crew, this is ironically the one real gain from the US strikes, which otherwise hit UK crew hard while delivering none of the benefits. Crewing up in the UK, relative to the US, is now even better value, yet the skill and experience you get with UK crew is inarguably the best in the world.

One final point - costly health insurance is not an issue for US productions operating in the UK, where crew can get treated for free, up to a point, on the NHS. 

UK Gov tax incentive

The UK tax incentive for big budget features is 25%, not the highest rate out there, but very competitive globally. Other rates are available for different budgets and categories: https://www.ukscreenalliance.co.uk/subpages/uk-film-high-end-tv-tax-incentives/

For Universal's blockbuster Jurassic World: Dominion (2022), the most expensive film ever made at the time, which was shot at Pinewood, the benefits of shooting in the UK meant a reported saving of £89m. 

65% of UK production spend comes from the five major US film studios and three US streaming giants - Netflix, Apple and Amazon. Last year this amounted to £1.37bn. That’s worth knowing purely because it’s not an easy figure to swallow up with a boosted Califonia tax incentive, or even a federal US tax incentive on top of that. In the first four months of 2025 in the UK, 15 inward investment films spent £592m in the UK, 94% of the total UK production spend on film (stats from the BFI).

In addition to the tax incentive, the March 2024 Budget announced a 40% rebate for Business Rates over 10 years for the film industry. That’s helped the big production companies take out large portions of Pinewood and Shepperton for years to come. This is particularly good for UK crew because it ties the big companies to UK studios.

Unscripted daytime TV is taking a big hit at the moment, with large numbers of crew and staff recently made redundant. Scripted drama, however, appears to have a healthier future. What’s more, localised content is recognised as an audience trend - which again bodes well for smaller and mid-sized TV productions.

How busy is the industry right now?

A year and a half ago in the winter of 2023/24, a Bectu survey showed 68% of crew were not working, then a year ago in summer 2024 that had dropped to about 50%, although lots of people suggested the figure was in reality higher.

Fast forward to the summer of 2025 and in scripted drama things feel good for the bigger budget productions. All the big London-area studios are hosting major productions, including the Harry Potter TV series, Emerald Fennell’s Wuthering Heights, the Beatles films, the untitled JJ Abrams film, Spiderman, Narnia, the Thomas Crown Affair and more. Those are all employing a good number of crew.

The statistics from the BFI show that there's no shortage of films being made this year. On numbers alone, you’d say the film industry was in good shape. 

However, it’s also true that this is not translating to widespread employment for all crew. Post-US strikes, cuts to the labour and spend budgets have translated into less prep time and fewer crew being asked to do more. Whether it ‘feels busy’ or not is inevitably a very subjective thing. As ever, employment levels are almost certainly better in Band 3 and 4,  where crews are bigger and there are more opportunities. There are still people struggling in the lower budgets.

For those who are new to the industry, who haven’t yet had the chance over the last five years to get those early credits and start making contacts, it’s still very tough. The crew base is larger than it was pre-Covid and competition for jobs, particularly the junior, entry-level roles, is high.

And the number of crew not working overall, including scripted and unscripted, is sadly likely to be higher than last year, due to the recent redundancies in unscripted daytime TV (largely caused by a decline in TV advertising revenue).

Overall, in scripted drama,the industry has changed since its pre-Covid boom and the days of back-to-back jobs are gone for the moment. It used to be normal to have three months off between jobs and Filmbase members should plan for that kind of financial year now. The good news is, they can do so optimistically. Despite pockets of slow progress, in scripted drama it’s a healthy industry right now, one that’s attracting big productions, employing lots of crew and one that seems to be determined to rebound after the strikes, despite Trump’s comments. For some crew, particularly juniors and those working in lower budgets, it does still feel quiet and for them it’s a case of staying resilient and looking after themselves as they keep all antennae tuned for jobs. Overall, the UK industry is in great shape and the signs for positive years ahead are strong.

Thank you to Helen Johnson from Talking Point for taking the time to talk to us about all of this.

Talking Point run courses for the Art Department, Set Decoration and Props Departments, details of which can be found on their website.