Trump tariffs and California’s tax incentive

The tariffs idea has been universally dismissed as impractical, yet Trump continues to mention it - it gives him a chance to suggest that California’s Governor Gavin Newsom has let Hollywood down and needs Trump’s help. Newsom, a possible presidential candidate for the Democrats in 2028, has increased California's tax incentive - the state is now competitive with other US states that are film-making hubs, notably Georgia and New York. Has that caused some productions to shoot in Hollywood instead of the UK? Not in the short-term but the Californian tax incentive may start to bring more productions to Hollywood longer-term, and if Newsom were to be successful in 2028, then as President he’d be likely to introduce a federal (US-wide) tax incentive, which would have an impact on the UK. For the moment, the UK remains the second biggest production hub in the world and benefitted from $8.7bn worth of US spend on TV and film drama in the last 12 months.

However, against these positive figures and the fact that overall film and TV spend is increasing, for crew on the ground it often feels like budgets are being cut and there’s a squeeze on rates.

This is part of the post-strikes landscape, where production companies still commit to the ‘legacy, high-conviction titles’ like Avengers or Star Wars, but have resolved to ‘consolidate’ the mid-range slate, where they are producing less and cutting back on the budgets.

Meanwhile crew in LA, still recovering from the fires, are struggling with a quieter industry and the fact that many productions now go abroad. Many feel demoralized by recent events.

Warners Bros and Netflix

Netflix has sweetened their bid by making it all-cash instead of cash and shares, and meanwhile Paramount appears to be frozen out. Monopoly concerns have been all but dismissed and Netflix have said they will continue the WB theatrical release calendar.

Filmbase article on the WB/Netflix situation:

https://www.filmbase.uk/warner-bros-takeover

Rates

Part of the concern is that Netflix could attempt to push rates down, compared to the Bectu ratecard. Longer-term, with less production companies around, there’s less leverage for crew in rate negotiations. 

This will be discussed in a Rates Round Table for Superversing Art Directors, organised by Filmbase on 12 Feb. If you are a Supervising Art Director and would like to join, you can do so here: https://www.filmbase.uk/event-6541692

We’re proposing to hold a similar discussion for Set Decorators.

TV

TV production is more buoyant than film, in terms of spend and the amount of productions that are coming through.

TV has a larger stake of that $6.8 billion US spend - around $4 billion of that is from HETV. Domestically, TV drama remains strong and the broadcasters have all committed to more British content. Regionally, there are productions that are crewing up at the moment for March-April starts.

Overall, be it for TV or film, the feeling is that we’re “back to what normal looks like” for the first time since before the pandemic. 2026 feels like a ‘normal’ year in the TV and film industry, compared to the years before we experienced the boom and bust years around the pandemic and strikes.

It’s generally quiet at this time of year (Jan/Feb) in the film and TV industry. In fact, the list of forthcoming productions is very good for this time of year.

Strikes

The US writers’, directors’ and actors’ contracts come up for negotiation again next year (they come up every few years); inevitably because the last time the contracts came up for negotiation, the US strikes happened, this has prompted talk online about more strikes. However, neither US union has mentioned anything about strikes and Bectu tells us they’re not preparing for any strikes. 

Meanwhile in the UK actors have voted ‘no’ in an Equity ballot asking them if they’d be prepared to be digitally scanned on set. This is so their images can’t be used by AI. In the long-term that raises the possibility of a strike. 

However, Bectu have told us: “This was an internal ballot and not an industrial action ballot - this would require a different procedure.”

Equity is still in negotiations and support from the British Film Council means that overall the ‘temperature has been lowered’.

Productions for 2026

Not a conclusive list but here's what we've heard about what is starting up soon and over the rest of this year. Please note that this list is accurate to the best of our abilities. Production status changes quickly and frequently!

TV series

• The Harry Potter TV series has been running for over a year now, but as with many of the long-running series, there has been a renewal of crew at various points. Season 2 starts prep in April so that may be an opportunity for some to get on this series, based at Leavesden. 
• We understand Rings of Power will also be continuing into a new season at Shepperton. 
• Black Mirror is confirmed for Ealing, starting prep in April. 
• House of Dragons are currently doing reshoots, and we know it’s a way off, but should start the new series in October. 
• Alien Earth Season 2 is starting at Pinewood, although we understand that crew budgets have been squeezed, as with many productions. 
• The Siege is smaller budget, based in OMA studios in Radlett, Hertfordshire. They have been crewing up for a while now so may be fully into prep. 

Going abroad

• There were thoughts that Minecraft 2 might be coming to the UK for a while, but recent information suggests that New Zealand is favoured again. 
• The Warner Bros Ocean’s prequel with Margot Robbie is also thought to be mainly in Europe.
• There’s been a lot of anticipation around Mass Effect, another game-based feature, but we hear that will be based in Budapest. 

• The live action Tangled  now has a UK Supervising Art Director associated with it. Unfortunately it’s apparently headed for Spain, so might not take on many other UK crew. 

• The big tent-pole movies (as they say in the US!) are still coming here:
• We’ve got Batman at Leavesden, which was pushed back for a while, but was due to start this week (early Feb). 
• The next Avengers movie is starting at Pinewood.
• There’s also word that another X-Men movie, the next Jurassic, Fast and Furious and a Ridley Scott WW1 movie could be all coming here, either in the next few months or later in the year. The Mummy (with original cast) is more imminent and is due into Elstree to start building in May. We also keep hearing about the next Bond and the rumours are this could be a TV series. 
• Wonka 2 is also currently in early development, but no news on where it’s going. There are also some smaller budget features due in the UK, including Mr Richards for Amazon MGM at Shepperton, starting in the next month. Bad Bridget is based in Belfast, an 1850s film with Rich Peppiat directing for Neflix. And finally Dark Park is possibly happening later in the year at either Shepperton or Leavesden, also for Netflix, with Joe Cornish directing Millie Bobbie Brown. 
• The Beatles at Bovingdon Studios is a batch of four films. Crew have been on it for over a year now, so there may be some openings there in April when they start the next block. 

Already crewed

These productions are already into prep, shooting or we understand are already crewed. However, they may need dailies, so it’s always worth investigating!

• Ebeneezer, (A Christmas Carol feature with Johnny Depp), shooting in London
• Sonic 4, at Shinfield, well underway
• One for All, Brad Pitt film, in Dublin
• Elden Ring, in prep 
• Tomb Raider, Shinfield, code name Project Temple
• Luther 2, Longcross, Netflix, just about to start shooting
• Daphne du Maurier film, with Anthony Hopkins and Uma Thurman, about to start filming at Leavesden, so all crewed
• The Husbands, code name The Lightbulb, at OMA V
• Wednesday season 3 in Ireland, was on hiatus now about to start
• Viva la Madness from Guy Ritchie, in the Gillette Building in west London
• Gangs of London is starting soon but it is crewed up
• Bridgerton  - a new season started in January
• Adian Mole - also apparently all crewed
• Talamasca is going to Canada we’ve heard
• Season 2 of Rivals is finishing, with no date for S3 yet
• Silo are about to finish season 4
• Eloise at the Plaza at Shepperton is also finishing in the next few months.

If you’re new to the industry and wondering what to do with this info, who to contact and so on, we have an article on Filmbase about all of this here: https://www.filmbase.uk/page-18708

Talking Point have a book called ‘How to get employed in the Art Dept’ which goes into this as well:

https://www.talkingpointfilm.co.uk/product-page/how-to-get-employed-in-the-art-department

Talking Point courses: https://www.talkingpointfilm.co.uk/items